October Outlook – Bitcoin, Ethereum, FunFair

Bitcoin:

The Bitcoin price has remained above $4000 since Sept. 28th. With a hardfork looming it’s uncertain how the market will react. According to Forbes, around 70 new crypto hedge funds started up with a mandate to buy crypto currencies. Is the price stability a reflection of institutional investor funds accumulating crypto capital with a higher allocation towards Bitcoin? Or are hedge funds sitting on the sidelines, and waiting until the Segwit2X hardfork unfolds?

If hedgefunds are betting on scenarios to conclude similar to the BCH hardfork, we could see continued support and possible uptrend as capital flows towards Bitcoin accumulation before the November hardfork. In this case, a position will be created with either chain winning.

Currently, it’s uncertain if this hard fork is likely to play out as Bitcoin Cash did. The outcome is unknown due to the contentious nature between both sides of the forks, and the lack of replay protection in the Segwit2X reference client. These two factors may lead to a network split and a chain reorganization. If this were the case, there will be massive confusion and uncertainty during and after the hard fork. Exchanges have significant risk exposure during this time. They also have a lot of influence as they play a major role as to which chain maintains the Bitcoin brand. They may make demands that the Segwit2X developers implement strong replay protection or face having Bitcoin accounts frozen until such a solution. I would imagine exchanges will provide clarity in the coming weeks as to how they will proceed.

Recommended reading: How Segwit2x replay protection works by Jimmy Song 

In the event of a clean hardfork with a separate Segwit2X network, it will still be a battle as to which reference client, consensus rules and developers the bitcoin ecosystem gets behind. After the dust settles and the landscape is once again visible, I predict the beginning of another huge bull run as institutional money waiting on the sideline has more clarity and less FUD.

Ethereum:

Ethereum has remained in the $280-$300 range for the past couple of weeks. I do not expect it to stay here long and have a much more bullish short term view of it relative to Bitcoin. There are several major events happening in October into November for Ethereum. The first being the Byzantium hardfork. Originally it was going to be one fork, called Metropolis. It’s since been split into two pieces. The second part is called Constantinople. The fork will occur at block # 4,370,000, which is scheduled for roughly October 17th.This hard fork is different from Bitcoin’s hardfork as it is non-contentious and is seen as a major improvement to the Ethereum protocol.

The second event is Devcon3 in Cancun, Mexico November 1st-4th. During this time we can expect several updates on Ethereum projects already in the works as well as new breakthroughs and projects to be revealed. The excitement and “hype” surrounding an Ethereum Devcon is very palpable, which has been translated into big price rally’s in the past. Combine this with institutional money waiting on the sidelines to buy crypto, we could see another massive bull run once we break the $400 resistance level.

Relative to Bitcoin, Ethereum has found support several times in the .065 to .07 range with a decent amount of volume signaling an accumulation phase. This is still 50%+ off of it’s all time high’s. I expect a retest of .1 ETH/BTC and an eventual retest of the all time high in the next couple of months.

FunFair:

Funfair is white-label technology that offers a provably fair online gaming casino platform for online casino’s to build upon using the Ethereum Blockchain.

After Funfair had their Phase I token sale in July, they were planning a dutch auction style sell off for Phase II in October. This has been cancelled and is now being debated amongst the team how to proceed with the remaining tokens. A token burn looks to be certain at this point. This has in the past been a very bullish event for projects as it diminishes the possible token supply and token holder dilution that will occur. On rumors of the token burn that were later confirmed, the price rallied more than 30%, but since has retraced back a bit. I expect once the official announcement of a token burn takes place, we will see a significant move upward leading to a rally until the actual event.

If the token burn isn’t enough momentum for a price rally, then Devcon3 might do the trick. Funfair is a global sponsor at Devcon3 and the project should see a lot of publicity, interest and excitement. Along with being a sponsor, Funfair will be unveiling a showcase update introducing 1 to 2 new games prior to the event.